Promoted teams should spend at least €70 million to survive in the premier league, figures say
Embed from Getty ImagesThe gulf between the Championship and Premier League seems to get more and more severe with each season, last year all 3 of those promoted came straight back down with a large and unceremonious crash. At the time of writing, none of the promoted teams in the 24/25 seasons have registered a win against any of their Premier League counterparts in a league match.
The outlook for any team promoted to the Premier League is bleak, only a select few have managed to solidify their place in the league for more than 2 seasons.
Barring just four seasons since the creation of the Premier League as we know it today, at least one promoted team has seen their efforts to survive in the most prestigious football league thwarted.
It is quite often stated that survival hinges on how much a club is willing (or able) to spend.
Data over the last 6 seasons showed that, in general, a promoted club needs to spend at least €70 million in order to stay in the Premier League. Those with a ‘+’ represent relegation.
However, football is an unpredictable sport and of course there are outliers.
Thomas Frank’s Brentford side truly bucked the trend in the 21/22 season, only spending €38.2 million and finishing in a very respectable 13th with 46 points.
On the flip side, Fulham and Burnley in the 18/19 and 23/24 season respectively had the worst spending to league performance ratio, both spending over €110 million while still ending the season in the relegation places. Though, Fulham have made several attempts to survive in the Premier League, managing to stick the landing with their third attempt in which they spent the least.
That first season back in the big time always looks to be the most difficult, get promoted, spend, get relegated, realise then the team you now have is far too good for the Championship, get promoted again and if not then the next, and thus the cycle continues. Ahh the life of a “yo-yo” club, perhaps an all too familiar phrase for the 18th to 23rd ‘best’ teams in the country.
The teams who perhaps found themselves being looked down upon by lady luck were Aston Villa in 19/20 and Nottingham Forest in 22/23. Villa spent over €20 million more than any other team in the last 6 seasons only to finish 1 point above the relegation zone, in part, thanks to a goal line technology malfunction against Sheffield United.
Nottingham Forest took the record transfer expenditure of any promoted team in the last 6 seasons, spending €198.35 million and only finishing 4 points above relegation.
Ipswich Town and Southampton have both spent well over the €70 million threshold for this season but it remains to be seen just how well it will work out for them.
Of course, how much a club spends is not the only variable which will determine the fate of a promoted team, two different Sheffield United sides sit closest either side of the €70 million mark but performance of both varies widely.
Management style, injuries, luck, academy setup and quality of players already at the club will factor into the overall performance of a promoted side, but, players that get you out of the Championship may not necessarily keep you in the Premier League, as many teams have soon found out.
It’s somewhat telling that those on the left hand side of the graph are more often than not subject to a brutal points tally come the end of the season.
A real star-studded quality is needed to survive in what is considered one of the most unforgiving leagues in the world, a quality that only multiple, multiple millions can buy.